| HARBOURSPORT |
Election day is here, and “Code Wars” are always a big talking point. To combine the two; how
would Australia vote if instead of Liberal, Labor, Greens etc, the choice was Aussie Rules, Rugby
League, Rugby Union or Soccer?
The first results to come in on election night are usually from Tasmania. The southern state is
Aussie Rules heartland, extremely safe; and despite some concern that the AFL are showing
more interest in the marginals than their Tasmanian heartland, it’s hard to see Tasmania doing
anything other than giving Aussie Rules all five House of Reps seats and all six Senate seats.
The ACT may once have been marginal, but is strongly pro-League these days. Rugby Union
has a strong candidate with the Brumbies, but Aussie Rules struggles to get a candidate up.
Aussie Rules may give preferences to Rugby Union to make the seats closer; but the likely result
in the ACT would be that Rugby League would take both House of Reps seats, while League and
Union would elect one Senator each.
Victoria is traditionally extremely safe Aussie Rules territory. The majority of AFL clubs are based
in Victoria, achieving attendances up there with the best leagues of any code anywhere in the
world. Other codes have established a presence in Victoria. Soccer has done well here, and
Rugby League had shown some promise before the local candidate was so publicly disgraced.
Rugby Union will be launching a Rebel campaign, but it’s too late for this election. I would call
Victoria as electing Aussie Rules to all 37 House of Reps seats, with Aussie Rules electing five
Senators and Soccer electing one.
Much of New South Wales is Rugby League heartland. The southern part of the state favours
Aussie Rules, with the so-called “Barassi Line” roughly in line with the Murrumbidgee River rather
than the state border on the Murray. Farrer and Riverina would be likely Aussie Rules seats, while
Eden-Monaro would be much closer.
Rugby Union will poll well in several North Shore and Eastern Suburbs electorates. But the
Roosters and Sea Eagles will ensure the Rugby League vote is still strong. Rugby Union’s best
chance of Lower House seats would be on the North Shore, where Rugby League has been
disenfranchised for 10 years. Aussie Rules polls reasonably well on the North Shore, and their
preferences may be enough to get Rugby Union over the line in North Sydney and Bradfield.
Aussie Rules will also poll a respectable vote in Sydney’s north-west, but Rugby League would still
be way too strong in Mitchell.
Soccer has reasonable support around Sydney, particularly in the south-western suburbs. But it
would be a hard ask to expect its support in any area to be strong enough to win a House of
Reps seat. Soccer should also poll well in the Central Coast seats of Dobell and Robertson, where
the Mariners are a strong local candidate and Rugby League’s party headquarters have yet to
endorse the local Bears candidate; but there should still be enough Rugby League support for
them to hold the seats.
I would call NSW as electing 43 Rugby League members to the House of Reps, with Aussie Rules
taking Farrer, Riverina and Eden-Monaro and Rugby Union taking North Sydney and Bradfield on
preferences. In the Senate, I would call Rugby League winning three seats, with Aussie Rules,
Rugby Union and Soccer winning one each.
South Australia is very strong for Aussie Rules, and other codes struggle to get a look in. Soccer
has enjoyed some success with the Reds, but Rugby Union and Rugby League have made little
effort to win over any support. Aussie Rules would likely win all 11 House of Reps seats, and 5
Senate seats while Soccer elects one Senator.
Queensland will strongly favour Rugby League. There may be small pockets of Aussie Rules
support, but only the far north in Cairns and Cape York Peninsula could Aussie Rules challenge
for a House of Reps seat. Rugby Union also has good support spread around the state. Soccer
have attempted to spread their wings into Queensland, but weak local candidates are struggling
to pull any support from the electorate. I would call Rugby League winning 29 House of Reps
seats with Aussie Rules taking Leichhardt, along with Rugby League taking 4 Senate seats.
Rugby Union and Aussie Rules would also elect a Senator.
Both Aussie Rules and Rugby League are established in the Northern Territory. Aussie Rules
would be marginally stronger, especially among the Aboriginal communities. Aussie Rules would
easily win Lingiari, and would probably take Solomon as well; with Aussie Rules and Rugby League
electing one Senator each.
Western Australia would strongly favour Aussie Rules, which is the dominant sport throughout
the state. The local candidates, the Eagles and Dockers, still draw support even when things aren’
t running their way. Rugby League’s failed experiment 13 years ago means it would struggle to
pull votes. Rugby Union would do better, and may attract enough preferences from the other
sports to elect a Senate seat. Soccer once pulled its strongest support in Western Australia, back
late in the NSL era; but while soccer support has improved in the eastern states it has gone
backwards in WA.
Aussie Rules would be strongly favoured to win all 15 House of Reps seats, along with five
Senators. Rugby Union would gain a Senator.
So overall, I would call the footy codes election in the House of Representatives:
Aussie Rules - 74
Rugby League - 74
Rugby Union - 2
And in the Senate:
Aussie Rules – 24
Rugby League – 9
Rugby Union – 4
Soccer – 3
Interestingly, although Aussie Rules would likely dominate the two-party preferred vote, as
shown in the Senate numbers, Rugby League would more than hold its own as far as winning
seats is concerned.
And although each code has worked hard to gain a presence in each other’s area, enough to get
themselves on the map in non-heartland cities; the effect on a mock football election would only
be to change the odd Senate seat. It seems unlikely that any significant number of House of
Reps seats would change hands for a very long time.
would Australia vote if instead of Liberal, Labor, Greens etc, the choice was Aussie Rules, Rugby
League, Rugby Union or Soccer?
The first results to come in on election night are usually from Tasmania. The southern state is
Aussie Rules heartland, extremely safe; and despite some concern that the AFL are showing
more interest in the marginals than their Tasmanian heartland, it’s hard to see Tasmania doing
anything other than giving Aussie Rules all five House of Reps seats and all six Senate seats.
The ACT may once have been marginal, but is strongly pro-League these days. Rugby Union
has a strong candidate with the Brumbies, but Aussie Rules struggles to get a candidate up.
Aussie Rules may give preferences to Rugby Union to make the seats closer; but the likely result
in the ACT would be that Rugby League would take both House of Reps seats, while League and
Union would elect one Senator each.
Victoria is traditionally extremely safe Aussie Rules territory. The majority of AFL clubs are based
in Victoria, achieving attendances up there with the best leagues of any code anywhere in the
world. Other codes have established a presence in Victoria. Soccer has done well here, and
Rugby League had shown some promise before the local candidate was so publicly disgraced.
Rugby Union will be launching a Rebel campaign, but it’s too late for this election. I would call
Victoria as electing Aussie Rules to all 37 House of Reps seats, with Aussie Rules electing five
Senators and Soccer electing one.
Much of New South Wales is Rugby League heartland. The southern part of the state favours
Aussie Rules, with the so-called “Barassi Line” roughly in line with the Murrumbidgee River rather
than the state border on the Murray. Farrer and Riverina would be likely Aussie Rules seats, while
Eden-Monaro would be much closer.
Rugby Union will poll well in several North Shore and Eastern Suburbs electorates. But the
Roosters and Sea Eagles will ensure the Rugby League vote is still strong. Rugby Union’s best
chance of Lower House seats would be on the North Shore, where Rugby League has been
disenfranchised for 10 years. Aussie Rules polls reasonably well on the North Shore, and their
preferences may be enough to get Rugby Union over the line in North Sydney and Bradfield.
Aussie Rules will also poll a respectable vote in Sydney’s north-west, but Rugby League would still
be way too strong in Mitchell.
Soccer has reasonable support around Sydney, particularly in the south-western suburbs. But it
would be a hard ask to expect its support in any area to be strong enough to win a House of
Reps seat. Soccer should also poll well in the Central Coast seats of Dobell and Robertson, where
the Mariners are a strong local candidate and Rugby League’s party headquarters have yet to
endorse the local Bears candidate; but there should still be enough Rugby League support for
them to hold the seats.
I would call NSW as electing 43 Rugby League members to the House of Reps, with Aussie Rules
taking Farrer, Riverina and Eden-Monaro and Rugby Union taking North Sydney and Bradfield on
preferences. In the Senate, I would call Rugby League winning three seats, with Aussie Rules,
Rugby Union and Soccer winning one each.
South Australia is very strong for Aussie Rules, and other codes struggle to get a look in. Soccer
has enjoyed some success with the Reds, but Rugby Union and Rugby League have made little
effort to win over any support. Aussie Rules would likely win all 11 House of Reps seats, and 5
Senate seats while Soccer elects one Senator.
Queensland will strongly favour Rugby League. There may be small pockets of Aussie Rules
support, but only the far north in Cairns and Cape York Peninsula could Aussie Rules challenge
for a House of Reps seat. Rugby Union also has good support spread around the state. Soccer
have attempted to spread their wings into Queensland, but weak local candidates are struggling
to pull any support from the electorate. I would call Rugby League winning 29 House of Reps
seats with Aussie Rules taking Leichhardt, along with Rugby League taking 4 Senate seats.
Rugby Union and Aussie Rules would also elect a Senator.
Both Aussie Rules and Rugby League are established in the Northern Territory. Aussie Rules
would be marginally stronger, especially among the Aboriginal communities. Aussie Rules would
easily win Lingiari, and would probably take Solomon as well; with Aussie Rules and Rugby League
electing one Senator each.
Western Australia would strongly favour Aussie Rules, which is the dominant sport throughout
the state. The local candidates, the Eagles and Dockers, still draw support even when things aren’
t running their way. Rugby League’s failed experiment 13 years ago means it would struggle to
pull votes. Rugby Union would do better, and may attract enough preferences from the other
sports to elect a Senate seat. Soccer once pulled its strongest support in Western Australia, back
late in the NSL era; but while soccer support has improved in the eastern states it has gone
backwards in WA.
Aussie Rules would be strongly favoured to win all 15 House of Reps seats, along with five
Senators. Rugby Union would gain a Senator.
So overall, I would call the footy codes election in the House of Representatives:
Aussie Rules - 74
Rugby League - 74
Rugby Union - 2
And in the Senate:
Aussie Rules – 24
Rugby League – 9
Rugby Union – 4
Soccer – 3
Interestingly, although Aussie Rules would likely dominate the two-party preferred vote, as
shown in the Senate numbers, Rugby League would more than hold its own as far as winning
seats is concerned.
And although each code has worked hard to gain a presence in each other’s area, enough to get
themselves on the map in non-heartland cities; the effect on a mock football election would only
be to change the odd Senate seat. It seems unlikely that any significant number of House of
Reps seats would change hands for a very long time.
| THE FOOTBALL CODE ELECTION |
This article was originally published on The Roar.
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